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Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

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GreenBear
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Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by GreenBear »

Entering the ’33-34 season, vibes were high in Portland. The Blazers are coming off back-to-back 50+ win seasons and a trip to the finals while navigating injury challenges along the way. The core is mostly young or in their prime. With the lone exception of Tyrese Haliburton, every player averaging 10+ minutes per game from last year’s finals run is returning. You get it.

But the CSL comes at you fast, ladies and gents. Through 20 turbulent games, the Blazers stand at 11-9. Not a total dumpster fire, but they are currently tied for 7th in the Western Conference, which is well below pre-season expectations.

So what’s going on with the Blazers?

The Okongwu imposter. Rarely the flashy player, Okongwu has been a rock in terms of consistency over his first 4 years in the league. You could pretty much pencil him in to average 10 points on 60% TS, 9 rebounds, and 2+ blocks to go along with strong defensive metrics across the board. He took it up a couple levels during the finals run though, averaging 13.0 points on 60% shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 3.4 blocks and 1.3 steals per game.

The Blazers promptly rewarded him with a fat 5 year contract this summer, but it seems OO spent the rest of the off-season relaxing by the pool counting his benjamins. The OO that showed up to training camp was very out of shape, and his performance has really suffered: averaging just 6.9 points (on 49.6 FG%) and 7.5 rebounds. And honestly, he needed a strong week this past week just to hit even these averages. He was shooting just 44.6% as of a week ago. Fortunately his rim protection skills appear to be intact, but that’s the only part of his game that’s not off to a slow start. Typically a high-flyer around the rim that dunks everything, he’s been a step slow thus far, and as a result, a number of his shots have gone flying into the bleachers like Ron Artest trying to find the dude that threw beer on him. The Blazers don’t need him to be a 20/12 guy or anything like that, but they do need him to get back to his career averages and impose his will in the areas he typically dominates: the offensive glass, putbacks and dunks, and protecting the rim.

Bolden’s shaken confidence. Expectations were high when GB reunited with Marques Bolden almost 2 seasons ago, and he immediately delivered solid dividends upon his arrival in Portland at the trade deadline, averaging 17.1 points on 51.0 FG%, 11.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks the rest of that year. He regressed last season, shooting a career worst 49.1 FG%. He struggled for consistency and was inevitably moved to the 2nd unit. The move was expected to be temporary until he could find his groove again, but that just didn’t happen for any substantial stretches. He had a couple great individual games in the playoffs while the team was dealing with injuries, but it wasn’t enough to regain his starting spot long-term. The team hoped he could regain his form after a full off-season to reset, but so far this season, he’s struggled even more to find his shot: shooting just 44.7%. To illustrate just how bizarre this stretch of poor shooting is for the ever consistent and efficient Bolden, these are his shooting averages since being drafted:

Year (games played): Season FG%
2026 (77 games): 56.6%
2027 (79 games): 50.9%
2028 (80 games): 52.5%
2029 (79 games): 52.1%
2030 (78 games): 53.2%
2031 (76 games): 52.0%
2032 (72 games): 49.1%
2033 (15 games): 44.7%

Coaches have not tinkered with his shot selection or shooting form since his arrival, so it appears to be more of a mental block with Bolden. Over the past year, the team has tried everything they could think of. He’s been given games off, removed from the starting lineup to come off the bench, had his minutes cut, and mixed-up who he’s been playing alongside. All to no avail.

With elevated expectations for the Blazers combined with the front-court depth the team has, Bolden has found himself sliding further and further down the pecking order and onto the Blazers’ trade block. He was nearly dealt this off-season to a top contender. The teams agreed on fair compensation pretty quickly and easily, but the trade hit a snag on rule complications that just couldn’t get resolved. So Bolden has remained on the block for most of this season as the Blazers look to give him a fresh start elsewhere while also trying to even out the roster a bit.

His playing time has been inconsistent so far this year due in large part to his awful, terrible, no good start to the year. But after a verbal agreement to ship Deyonta Davis out, and a rash of minor front court injuries, Bolden has found himself with another chance to resurrect his Portland career. But the leash is short, so he’s going to need to make the most of these opportunities if he wants to stick around. Otherwise, I’m sure the team would not hesitate to ship him out if a reasonable offer came their way.

The talent is clearly there. He can create his own shot, he rebounds very well and he is an above average rim protector. For whatever reason, it just hasn’t worked out for him in Portland.

Image
The Blazers haven't ruled out sending Bolden to Indonesia...

Can the Blazers turn their season around? The team hasn’t ruled out larger shake-ups if the disappointing season continues, but the team remains optimistic that better days are ahead. Turnovers are down considerably (from 15.1 -> 13.3), stocks are up (15.8 -> 16.1), and point differential is up (5.8 -> 6.8) from last year’s 53 win team. The Blazers haven’t had any luck in close games so far. They are 0-4 in games decided by single digits. All 11 of their wins have been by 10+. At some point, they’ve gotta win some close games too, right? Blazers fans sure hope so, because if they don’t, then they’ll probably remain play-in bound.

Jestor
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by Jestor »

So I dug into the numbers a little bit more. He went from 52 and change% with Denver to 51% exactly with you in the split season. Then a 1.9% drop last season, which is within expected variance if Denver’s system fits better than yours as seems to be the case.

This almost 5% drop is probably a combination of poorer system fit and cold streak rolls.

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rh0xxy
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by rh0xxy »

Are you talking about that Bolden to Philly? I'm still open to that lol

Okongwu already got what he wanted so probably the motivation aren't there anymore lol
Bolden, with GG and Christ getting their acts together, it could be better if he gets traded than being left out in the bench imo
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bt
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by bt »

Christ coming in could disrupt the bigs I guess compared to another perimeter scorer in Haliburton.

Geez I love me some GG though. Kid is already good but so efficient and young. Great find and player there.
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GreenBear
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by GreenBear »

Jestor wrote: ↑Sat Jun 21, 2025 1:48 am So I dug into the numbers a little bit more. He went from 52 and change% with Denver to 51% exactly with you in the split season. Then a 1.9% drop last season, which is within expected variance if Denver’s system fits better than yours as seems to be the case.

This almost 5% drop is probably a combination of poorer system fit and cold streak rolls.
Tim, you can take your logic and get out. There's no room for that in the CSL

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GreenBear
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by GreenBear »

rh0xxy wrote: ↑Sat Jun 21, 2025 2:15 am Are you talking about that Bolden to Philly? I'm still open to that lol
Trade or die :)
rh0xxy wrote: ↑Sat Jun 21, 2025 2:15 am Bolden, with GG and Christ getting their acts together, it could be better if he gets traded than being left out in the bench imo
Yeah, I keep waiting for him to bounce back. Would love to have the Bolden of old as my first big off the bench. Hasn't happened yet though. And McCoy has been too good not to give minutes to. So Bolden remains a 4th big for now.

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GreenBear
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by GreenBear »

bt wrote: ↑Sat Jun 21, 2025 2:37 am Geez I love me some GG though. Kid is already good but so efficient and young. Great find and player there.
GG has really impressed me. It's very rare I play guys in their first or second year this much. I haven't even touched his shot prefs yet. But he's such a talented shooter that it plays anyway.

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Flaming Homer
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Re: Blazers' CSL Finals hangover

Post by Flaming Homer »

We talked about it, that both finalist having a rough time this year. Cleary final course.

I do think (or at least its my only hope) that the guys will return to form. Maybe just a bit tired from going all the way. But stats should be level out over the season!

Bolen is an interesting case though.

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